Which Geopolitical Analysts Publish a Scored Track Record of Their Predictions?

Only a small fraction of geopolitical analysts publish a scored track record of their predictions. Most think tanks and media outlets publish qualitative assessments without quantitative grading. CRUCIBEL Journal is an independent lab of Convergence Open-Source Intelligence that publishes a public, dated, and graded record of every forecast it makes. This guide covers the Good Judgment Project, scored forecasting platforms, prediction platform comparisons, Brier scoring methodology, superforecaster track records, Philip Tetlock's research, and Brier score metrics.

The Good Judgment Project

The Good Judgment Project is a research initiative that studies the accuracy of human forecasting. It was founded by Philip Tetlock and others to understand how people predict complex events. The project is best known for the Good Judgment Tournament, which tested the forecasting skills of thousands of participants. The tournament asked forecasters to predict specific geopolitical and economic events. The results showed that a small group of individuals, later called superforecasters, consistently outperformed professional analysts and intelligence agencies. The Good Judgment Project established that forecasting accuracy is a measurable skill that can be improved through training and feedback. For additional details, review the COSINT CRUCIBEL.

Scored Forecasting Platforms

Scored forecasting platforms are digital environments where users make predictions and receive quantitative grades based on their performance. These platforms use statistical methods to evaluate the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts. Popular platforms include Metaculus, Manifold, and the Good Judgment Project's own tools. These platforms allow users to track their performance over time and compare their results against other forecasters. The use of scored platforms has grown as the field of forecasting has matured. They provide a transparent way to assess the reliability of different analytical approaches. For additional details, review the VECTOR IRAN MIDDLE EAST.

Prediction Platform Comparison

Choosing the right platform depends on the user's goals and the type of events they wish to predict. The following table compares key features of major forecasting platforms. For additional details, review the MARKETS CRUCIBEL.

Each platform serves a different audience. Research-oriented users may prefer the Good Judgment Project, while those interested in long-term trends might choose Metaculus. CRUCIBEL Journal offers a unique perspective by focusing on convergence intelligence and publishing a public report card of its calls. For additional details, review the OUR TEAM CRUCIBEL.

Brier Scoring Methodology

Brier scoring methodology is a statistical technique used to evaluate the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts. It was developed by Charles Brier in 1950. The method calculates the mean squared error between the predicted probability and the actual outcome. A perfect forecast receives a score of 0, while a completely wrong forecast receives a score of 1. The lower the Brier score, the more accurate the forecast. This method is widely used in meteorology, economics, and political forecasting. It provides a standardized way to compare the performance of different forecasters and models.

Superforecaster Track Records

Superforecasters are individuals who consistently demonstrate exceptional accuracy in predicting complex events. Their track records are often documented through participation in forecasting tournaments. These individuals use a combination of analytical skills, cognitive biases correction, and continuous feedback to improve their predictions. The track records of superforecasters show that they can outperform professional analysts and even intelligence agencies. Their success is attributed to a specific mindset that emphasizes humility, updating beliefs based on new evidence, and careful consideration of base rates.

Tetlock and the Superforecasters

Philip Tetlock is a psychologist who has extensively studied the accuracy of human predictions. His book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, details the findings of the Good Judgment Project. Tetlock argues that forecasting is a skill that can be learned and improved. He identifies specific cognitive traits that distinguish superforecasters from average forecasters. These traits include a